PSI - Issue 20

Ulyana S. Ivanova et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 20 (2019) 136–142 Ulyana S. Ivanova et al. / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2019) 000 – 000

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Table 1. Basic risks of a technosphere. Risk of emergency situations of technogenic character Risk of emergency caused by accident on land transport

Technogenic risk and reliability

Material risk

Risk of accidents facility targeted by technical regulation, potentially hazardous object, critical infrastructure, strategically infrastructure Risk of refusals facility targeted by technical regulation, potentially hazardous object, critical infrastructure, strategically infrastructure

Damage caused by road accident

Risk of occurrence from the fires and explosions on industrial and social objects

Damage caused by fires and explosions

Risk of building and constructions collapses

Risk of violation exploitation

Damage caused by collapses

Risk of occurrence from emergency on objects of housing and public utilities

Damage caused by accidents on objects of housing and public utilities Damage caused by radiation dangerous object accidents Damage caused by railway accidents Damage caused by river transport accident Damage caused by air transport accident Damage caused by chemically dangerous objects accidents Damage caused by hydrotechnical object accident

Risk of an emergency situation with exhaust of radioactive substances Risk of emergency caused by railway accidents Risk of emergency caused by river transport accident Risk of emergency caused by air transport accident Risk of an emergency situation with the exhaust of chemically dangerous substance Risk of emergency caused by hydrotechnical object accident Risk of emergency caused by pipeline systems accident

Damage caused by pipelines accidents

Analysis of natural and anthropogenic emergencies allows identifying the main risk groups and their probability of occurrence characteristic of the Russian Federation territory (Fig. 2). The calculation was made on the basis statistical data with using the state reports of the Ministry of Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters. and methodological recommendations on the assessment of the events probability taken from Annual state reports (2009-2017) and Collection (2008, 2011). 3. Calculations and results On the basis of the obtained probabilities, it is possible to calculate the occurrence of anthropogenic emergency situations for various subjects of the Russian Federation taken from Collection (2008, 2011). Figure 3 presents data on the Krasnoyarsk territory with a detailed study of each emergency factor. For the Krasnoyarsk territory, the highest probability of anthropogenic emergencies is associated with large fires at sites with a massive presence of people and on land transport. To determine the risk of emergencies occurrence at a particular facility, we need statistics on hazardous facilities in the study area taken from Annual state reports (2009-2017). Figure 4 presents in a percentage of the data on the Krasnoyarsk territory the number of dangerous objects in the technosphere. Based on the “event tree” method, the risks of emergencies are determined by various factors taken from Collection (2008, 2011) and GOST (2015). Table 2 summarizes the calculated risk data. Figure 5 is an example of a graphical-probabilistic representation of a large fire at an industrial facility. In the Krasnoyarsk territory, there are more than 150 potentially hazardous objects, including fire and explosion hazardous objects (fire-explosion-