PSI - Issue 20

Ulyana S. Ivanova et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 20 (2019) 136–142 Ulyana S. Ivanova et al. / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2019) 000 – 000

137

2

1. Introduction Nowadays, there is a practical need for risk analysis as a basis of making decisions on ensuring the safety of the population in the operation of technical systems. Particular importance is given to the problems of estimating and forecasting technological risks caused by the possibility of occurrence damages for various scales. Sustainable development of territorial entities is associated with a quantitative assessment of the integrated safety for the region using a risk-based approach by Makhutov N.A et al. (2011), Makhutov N.A. et al. (2013), Safety of Russia, (2001), Levkevich V.E. et al. (2014), Moskvichev V.V. et al. (2017). The territory of an industrial region is a single complex system, whose elements exert on each other's mutual influence and are characterized by the presence of risks. Each element of the S-N-T system is characterized by different components of risks (Fig. 1). The paper considers an element of the S-N-T system – the technosphere and the risks that are formed and realized in it, on the example of the regions of the Krasnoyarsk territory.

Fig. 1. Risks of S-N-T of a system.

In accordance with the Action Plan for the Prevention and Liquidation Emergencies of Natural and Anthropogenic kind of the Krasnoyarsk territory, approved on February 22, 2019, due to the disruption of technological processes in production activities at the facilities of the technosphere, 18 dangerous anthropogenic emergencies can occur, which include accidents on transport (river transport, land transport, air transport and rail transport), explosions, collapses and large fires at dangerous facilities, accidents with the release of emergency chemical and radiation hazardous substances, destruction of main oil and gas lines and accidents on life support systems (electric power systems, utility systems and heating service). In the study of the main sources of anthropogenic emergencies, a causal complex is identified, due to large number factors of a random nature, which determines the anthropogenic emergencies by probabilistic events. 2. Statement and method of solution The functioning of anthropogenic systems is accompanied by the implementation of various types and risk groups that need to be identified and take the necessary measures aimed at protecting and mitigating the consequences in case of danger as shown by Artyukhin et al. (2016) and Moskvichev V.V. et al. (2018). Table 1 presents the main groups of basic risks of the technosphere.