PSI - Issue 78

Cristina Cantagallo et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 78 (2026) 1482–1489

1484

Various econometric methods have been proposed to capture these dynamics. Specifically, intervention analysis has been widely used to estimate the impact of discrete shocks on tourism demand. Lee et al. (2005) applied ARIMA intervention models to quantify the drop in air transport demand after the September 11 attacks, while Huang and Min (2002) employed similar models to assess the impacts of the 1999 earthquake and the 2003 SARS outbreak on inbound tourism to Taiwan. Econometric studies typically focus exclusively on fluctuations in demand after a disruptive event, providing precise measurements of how visitation numbers decline and recover over time, or how external shocks affect tourism revenues in the immediate aftermath. However, these models do not attempt to assess the broader systemic vulnerability of tourism areas, nor do they integrate structural seismic risk factors or the economic structure of tourism dependence into a unified framework. As a result, while some methods offer rigorous measurement of specific impacts (such as declines in arrivals), comprehensive models capable of linking physical risk and economic and touristic dependency are still lacking. The GENESIS project seeks to bridge this methodological gap by proposing an integrated quantitative model that combines tourism dependence metrics with seismic impact scenarios, enabling a holistic assessment of vulnerability in historic centers. 3. Case Study and Context Popoli Terme, located in the province of Pescara in the Abruzzo region, was selected as the main case study of this research because it represents a typical example of a small historic center in central Italy. In addition to its cultural heritage, which includes historic buildings and a long-standing tradition of thermal tourism, the municipality is characterized by significant seismic hazard due to the presence of active fault systems along the Apennine ridge (Fig. 1a). On April 6, 2009, a Magnitude 6.3 ea rthquake struck the province of L’Aquila and surrounding areas, causing widespread damage to historic towns in Abruzzo (Fig. 1b). In Popoli Terme, although the destruction was less severe than in L’Aquila itself, the earthquake nonetheless produced significant consequences. Several buildings in the historic center suffered structural damage, public infrastructure required extensive repairs, and parts of the thermal facilities were affected. The event also generated indirect impacts, including the temporary decline in tourism flows and a reduction in economic activity linked to the perception of risk among potential visitors. These effects highlight the importance of integrating seismic vulnerability assessment with tourism-related economic considerations.

(a)

(b)

Fig. 1. (a) View of the historic center of Popoli Terme with characteristic heritage buildings; (b) location of Popoli Terme along the central Apennine fault systems that generate significant seismic hazard

The analysis developed in this study relied primarily on data provided by ISTAT, the Italian National Institute of Statistics. The main data sources included the ISTAT dataset provide detailed information on exposure to seismic and hydrogeological hazards at municipal level, as well as official statistics on resident population, employment, and tourism demand (Fig. 2).