PSI - Issue 78

Cristina Cantagallo et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 78 (2026) 1482–1489

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1. Introduction The effects of earthquakes on historic areas are rarely confined to physical damage alone. In fact, seismic events trigger a multidimensional chain of impacts — physical, economic, and social — that can deeply affect the long-term viability of small historic towns. While the collapse or deterioration of cultural assets is the most visible consequence, it is often the disruption of economic activity and loss of population that causes the most lasting damage (De la Torre 2002). For this reason, risk reduction policies aimed at protecting built heritage must be coupled with a deeper understanding of the systemic vulnerabilities of local economies. Among the different dimensions of vulnerability, economic dependence on tourism, here defined as tourism dependence , emerges as a key factor. Small historic centers often depend strongly on tourism flows for income generation, employment, and urban vitality (Orchiston 2013). This makes them particularly vulnerable to events that restrict access or damage the heritage buildings that attract visitors (Huang and Min 2002). In this context, the definition of measurable, data-driven indicators — such as tourism dependence metrics — becomes essential. They enable planners and decision-makers to anticipate the economic consequences of seismic events, prioritize the most exposed areas, and align conservation strategies with broader goals of socio-economic resilience (Ritchie 2009). Based on these considerations, this study aims to define a metric to estimate the potential effects of a seismic event on the tourism and economic dimensions of historic centers. The case study of Popoli Terme, a small historic town located in the Abruzzo region, central Italy, and severely affected by the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake, is presented to illustrate how these factors interact in a real context and to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodological approach. This study is part of the GENESIS project – Seismic Risk Management for the Touristic Valorisation of the Historical Centers of Southern Italy, funded by PON MIUR “Research and Innovation” 2014– 2020 and FSC, under D.D. 13/07/2017 n. 1735 (Project Code ARS01_00883). The main objectives of this project, as well as several of its developments, are presented in Cantagallo et al. (2024a), Cantagallo et al. (2024b), Masciotta et al. (2024), Cantagallo et al. (2025), Cianchino et al. (2025), Mancini et al. (2025) and Spacone et al. (2025). The article is organized as follows: Section 2 reviews the existing literature and discusses the main limitations of current assessment methods; Section 3 describes the context and specific features of the study area; Section 4 presents the methodology, including data sources and analytical procedures; Section 5 discusses the results of the tourism dependence analysis and the projected impact scenarios; and finally, Section 6 offers conclusions and recommendations for future applications and policy development. 2. Existing Approaches and Their Limitations The relationship between seismic risk and tourism vulnerability has gained increasing attention in recent years, particularly in countries where heritage and tourism represent major economic drivers. However, existing tools and frameworks often remain fragmented and qualitative. Currently, efforts to quantify vulnerability of historic centers to earthquakes typically focus on physical assets (e.g., monuments, churches, museums), without integrating the socio economic dimension of tourism . From a methodological perspective, several studies have focused on the impact of disasters on tourism demand, mostly employing time-series analyses and econometric approaches. Mazzocchi and Montini (2001) explored how the 1997 Umbria earthquake affected tourist flows in central Italy, while Huang and Min (2002) demonstrated that inbound tourism demand in Taiwan remained depressed eleven months after the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. Yang et al. (2008) examined the effects of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, China, and Orchiston (2013) estimated that recovery of visitation after a large Alpine Fault earthquake in New Zealand would require twelve to eighteen months depending on timing. Similar patterns were observed in Thailand and the Maldives following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (Birkland et al. 2006, Carlsen and Hughes 2008). In addition to natural disasters, several researchers have analyzed the impacts of epidemics and financial crises, underlining the multi-hazard vulnerability of tourism systems. Kuo et al. (2008) assessed the effects of SARS and Avian Flu on Asian tourist arrivals, while Pine and McKercher (2004) documented the severe impact of SARS on Hong Kong’s tourism and hospitality sector. Wang (2009) compared the effects of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the September 11 attacks, and the SARS outbreak, highlighting that health crises can have even deeper and more prolonged impacts than seismic events.