PSI - Issue 22

H. Daou et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 22 (2019) 17–24 H. Daou, W. Raphael, A. Chateauneuf, F. Geara / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2019) 000 – 000

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1.3. Probabilistic analysis and safety assessment In order to assess the safety of the structure, probabilistic analysis was conducted in terms of flexural moment and long term deflection. The ratio of reinforcement required is calculated according to EC2 and then compared to the existing ratio of the shell. The maximum value of deflection admissible is equal to 12 cm (Daou et al. (2019)). The probability of failure Pf is expressed as shown in Eq.2 where l is the shell span and y is the deflection in cm. According to ISO 2394 1998 and for the case of great consequences and low relative costs of safety measures, the target probability of failure P f target = 8.539x10 -6 . The probabilistic analysis of the finite element model is performed by using a combination of RSM and MCS.     0 12 0 250                   prob cm y l y prob P f (2)

Fig. 3. Values of moment obtained by Ansys (N.m)

Fig.4. Monte Carlo Simulation sample value of moment (N.m)