PSI - Issue 65

Dumanskaya E.I. et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 65 (2024) 75–82 Dumanskaya E.I., Emelyanov I.G. / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2024) 000–000

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sentences do not necessarily act as deterrents, and in some cases may even slightly increase the likelihood of a crime. The proposed model can identify persons on probation who are most likely to relapse. It is necessary for the aim of prevention so that social support and influence in combination with the punishment are effective. The more factors of negative social processes, negative personality traits contributed the crimes, including motives and unconscious ones, Dumanskaya (2024), we take into account in the model and the shorter time intervals for observation, the more reliable is the indicator of personality dangerousness. Based on the extrapolation of the social crime determinants and the data on the personality in the time period – probation period, signification of personality dangerousness function makes it possible to assess the risks of recidivism. The problem of preventive measures for persons who have a high risk of relapse requires separate research. With effective monitoring of relevant risk factors, probation officers can recognize a person at risk and decide how to intervene to reduce that risk. With a mathematical analogy used in the study of technical objects, a mathematical model of a personality which makes it possible to quantify a propensity to commit a crime is created. The function of personality dangerousness in the year of the crime and previous years obtained by us can be used as a quantitative assessment for the crime prevention. Criminal behavior is a complex dynamic system. Human behavior is a probabilistic system. The probability of criminal behavior for a person and under certain circumstances may be very high, but knowledge about research question does not allow us to draw a conclusion that a crime will necessarily be committed. For this reason, in specific forecasting, it is possible to talk only about variants of possible person's behavior in future, and not about an unambiguous prognostic conclusion. The article proposes a mathematical model describing the function of personality dangerousness. Quantitative signification of personality dangerousness makes it possible to assess the recidivism risks of persons on probation on the basis of extrapolation of social crime determinants and forecasts of the state of crime, and information of transformation personality traits. On the basis of forecast assessments, the crime prevention officials must take the preventive measures in a timely manner so that the forecast does not come true. Thus, numerical modeling of personal criminal behavior through a comprehensive account of external and internal factors can be an effective way to predict crime. Grigolyuk, E.V., Tolkachev, V.V., 1987. Contact Problems in the Theory of Plates and Shells, Central Books Ltd, pp. 421. Kantor, B.Y., 1990. Contact problems of the nonlinear theory of shells of revolution [in Russian], Naukova Dumka, Kiev, pp. 136. Emelyanov, I.G., 2023. Applying the Method of Virtual Elements to Solving Contact Problems of Shells of Revolution Interacting with Surfaces of Inconsistent Shape [in Russian], Diagnostics, Resource and Mechanics of materials and structures 2, pp. 19-40, DOI:10.17804/2410 9908.2023.2.019-040. Emel’yanov, I.G., Dumanskaya E.I., 2022. Crime-related Threats on Transportation Safety: A Mathematical Model of Risk Assessment. In Proceedings of the 1st International Scientific and Practical Conference on Transport: Logistics, Construction, Maintenance, Management - TLC2M-2022, SciTePress, pp. 272-277. DOI:10.5220/0000165000003527. Kachanov, L.M., 1958.On the Time of Destruction in the Conditions of Creeping [in Russian], Academy of Sciences of the USSR. Department of Technology. Sciences, pp. 26–31. Rabotnov, Y.N., 1991.Problems of mechanics of a deformable solid [in Russian], Nauka Publ., Moscow, pp. 194. Piskunov, N.S., 1985. Differential and Integral Calculus for Higher Educational Institutions [in Russian], Nauka Publ., Moscow, pp. 560. Dumanskaya, E.I., 2024. Domestic Violence Victimization: Problems of Prevention, Victimology, 11, 2, pp.260-266. DOI: 10 .47475/2411-0590 2024-11-2-260-266 6. Conclusions References