PSI - Issue 65
Dumanskaya E.I. et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 65 (2024) 75–82 Dumanskaya E.I., Emelyanov I.G. / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2024) 000–000
81
7
Table 4. Number of unemployed Year
S d . Number of unemployed
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1
0.974 0.629 0.243
0
Table 5. Urbanization Year
S d . Urbanization
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1
0.999 0.696 0.066
0
By setting the person's susceptibility coefficient to social factors s =0.75, the system (11) for each year of follow up is taken the form
2 [(0.6 0.75 0.590] 0.0001 1 1 D
2 [(0.6 0.75 0.541] 0.0044 1
D
2
2 [(0.6 0.75 0.412] 0.0540 1 3 D
(15)
2 [(0.6 0.75 0.077] 0.2420 1 4 D
. 2 [(0.6 0.75 0.5] 0.3989 1
D
5
D 1 =0.00019, D 2 =0.0087, D 3 =0.119, D 4 =0.739, D 5 =0.8182. 5. Discussion of the results of the decision.
In this article, the function of personality dangerousness is found. The significations obtained mean in the last period of life (5 years) the of personality dangerousness under study increases dynamically. And in the year of the crime committed it reaches the critical signification for the person D cr = 0.8182. It seems that an increase in this personal characteristic can trigger to relapses. The accuracy of a certain signification of personality dangerousness function under study depends strongly on information about personality traits and social determinants over a certain period of time, as well as on the time period of discretization of these phenomena. The normal law of probability of prerequisites for committing a crime proposed in the article is quite universal. A normal law can describe various processes, including humanitarian ones. Selecting the appropriate parameters, it is possible to explore various variants of the probability of a crime, ranging from increasing slowly over the last years to rapidly evolving. We want to highlight that we use our model only to case of probation. In the model there is no influence of external factors, the criminal has not been sentenced to prison. Some criminological studies suggest that harsher
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