PSI - Issue 30

Valeriy V. Lepov et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 30 (2020) 82–86 Valeriy V. Lepov et al / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

85

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which has a continuous analogue in the form of the differential logistic Verhulst equation: Ω���� � � ∙ Ω ∙ �� � Ω  ⁄ ��� � ���� where V ,  are the coefficients of the growth rate and the volume of resources of the corresponding industry at a given structural level (scale). New protocol for synthesizing systems models proposed by Boyd (2001), new approaches for computational economics presented in Handbook Vol.3 (2014), Handbook Vol.4 (2018). The numerous examples illustrate how discounted cash flow valuation is applied under the various scenarios through modeling shown by DePamphilis (2019). The modeling by model (3) with some delay factors as social inertia shown on Fig.1. Determination of the parameters of stepwise dependencies of this kind for the research and development foresight is a high important scientific and technical task, since it allows to respond in a timely manner scientific and technological progress trends and significantly reduce the time and money spent on creating promising CES, to orient the industry towards the critical technologies and achievement for the ‘breakthrough’ results. 4. Conclusion The outlined system-wide approach and methodology make it possible to create a software tools (the forecasting, analysis and selection system) and on the base of it to monitor and manage the level and pace of development of the both of fundamental research and industrial technologies for creating CES in the high-tech industries of the Russian Federation. For example, the modeling of the simple process (see Fig.1) shown that the volume of resources will diminish faster that the time lapse in industrial revolutions.

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Fig. 1. The result of modeling of technology changes during scientific-and-technological advance in centuries.

This is ensured through the constant and continuous analysis of the flows of industry scientific and technical information, modeling the state of semantic maps of target and related industries, as well as predicting their development in the future, timely identification of leading directions of fundamental research to create industrial