PSI - Issue 30

Valeriy V. Lepov et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 30 (2020) 82–86 Valeriy V. Lepov et al / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

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1. Introduction A “foresight" term was firstly used by Herbert Wells in 1930 as the scientific forecast. At present time it is the system of expertise of strategic sectors of social-economic and innovation development and a discipline use to gather and process information about future operating environment. It could reveal the technological breakthroughs capable to impact of economics and society in a medium and a long-term outlook. Currently for such the scenarios implementation the State development programs used as the “Digital economics of Russian Federation” and other. Particularly the initiative of digital transformation of the economics and society in Europe gain by Germany where from the 2017 was discussed and accepted the program Industry 4.0, as mentioned by Alcácerac (2019), Plakitkin (2018) and other. The strategy choosing means that applying of the general-system approach for economics and industry transformation should base on science and IT-technologies and include the complex engineering systems development. As the requirements hardening to world level for the operational reliability indexes of such systems, and acceleration and expense shortening of product life, so the opportuneness factor of revelation and selection of efficient critical technologies gains particular importance. These technologies provide the priority development of complex engineering systems and operation measures in extreme environment. The process of revealing, analysis and selection of the priority direction of industrial technologies of complex engineering systems development examines as the whole of harmonized system of foresight research, include:  establishment of the enumeration of possible and existing directions of fundamental research for challenging scientific and technological development of the machinery manufacturing;  fundamental basement and probability properties estimation of the revealing direction (states, temps, teams etc.);  formation of the criteria to be used to choice and ranging of most preferential direction.

Nomenclature j

current leap number

coefficient depended of the field of science and technology

K 

NTA CES STR

scientific-and-technological advance complex engineering system scientific and technical revolution

growth rate coefficient

V

volatility of complex multiscale system periods between the technological evolution leaps

y

 t j 

resource capacity coefficient measure of the time scale



2. Methodology and preconditions 2.1. Theoretical preconditions

There two main approaches to scientific and technological development currently exist, - the cumulative model (for step-by-step, evolution development) and leapfrogging model (for scientific revolutions) proposed by Kuhn, 1975. The question about the revolutionary or evolution scenario has been still disputable at present time. 2.2. Informational and Political preconditions The latest developments demonstrate the necessity of range of technologies for monitoring and management of digital information sector of basic science and its applications used the multilevel mathematical models of new type. In the long rang, this will enable to make forecasts for scientific researches and evaluate risks of development. Also