PSI - Issue 20

V.V. Nicheporchuk et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 20 (2019) 248–253 V.V. Nicheporchuk, A.I. Nozhenkov / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

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2. Features of comprehensive situational modeling The offered technology of emergency situational modeling is implemented in integrated management support informational systems "ESPLA-Pro", "ESPLA-M" by Nozhenkova (2009) and Nozhenkov (2018). These systems are used in rescue services of emergency response in Krasnoyarsk region to solve the problems of modeling situations in different modes of operation. As shown by Zhirkov (2017) for the experience of operation of situational modeling systems, the main problem is the updating of information resources based on the organization of interdepartmental information exchange. In the conditions of imperfection of the legislation on the use and protection of information, it is usefully to develop distributed systems of situational modeling with provision of operational access to the results of the assessment situation of interacting departments. For example, in the case of a chemical accident in a populated area, it is necessary to clearly consolidate the efforts of various services to eliminate the accident (rescue, transport) and to carry out protection measures (medical care for victims, food supply, temporary accommodation, psychological assistance, etc.). With full information on the situation and the dynamics of its development, each service addresses the management tasks, taking into account the information of available resources for urgent work. The approach to determining the scale of a dangerous situation also needs to be changed. In the first minutes of an emergency requiring urgent actions, it is impossible to determine the exact number of victims, and even the amount of material damage. The majority of emergencies, according to Federal Law (1994) or Resolution of the Government (2007) has a local scale. However, from the point of view of situational management, it is important how many services should be involved in the work to eliminate the dangerous situation and its consequences, their profile, subordination, capabilities. On the basis of these characteristics interaction, distribution of works, assessment of necessary resources, are organized. The use of intelligent technologies in management, as a rule, supposes the formation of several alternative solutions with the possibility of ranking them according to priorities. This option in the field of natural and technogenic safety of territories is possible in the presence of full information about the objects O 1 , O 2 , O 3 . With the authors participation a regional system of integrated operational monitoring, automating the processes of collection, verification and analytical processing of data on possible threats of dangerous situations, the characteristics of protection and management objects is developed by Nicheporchuk (2013). In addition to collecting and keeping up-to-date the data used in the process of developing management solutions in emergencies it is necessary to refine and extend the knowledge base of dangerous situations scenario. This process is iterative: in the case of emergency the information system generates a decision, supplemented by event's data and the opinions of experts. Upon completion of rescue operations, key solutions and implemented activities are "digitized", and the events are presented in the form of complex information objects (see task t 1 ). The knowledge base is used both to find a situation-analogue in the task t 2 , and when assessing the risks of t 3 , taking into account the whole set of situations that have occurred. 3. Summary We offer a situational modeling technology of natural and technogenic emergencies. This technology integrates the calculation methods of emergency assessment of various complexity, methods of analytical processing and dynamic mapping controlled by the expert system. The offered technology is based on a system model of situational management and a generic algorithm for assessing the consequences of dangerous situations. The technology is implemented in informational systems of management support in Krasnoyarsk region. The described approach to situational modeling in future can be used in the development of action plans for emergency response of municipalities. Integration of situational modeling tools and informational systems of operational monitoring of dangerous objects and territories as shown by Babincev (2018) or Faleev (2015) allows increasing the effectiveness of solutions for the prevention and elimination of emergencies.