V.V. Nicheporchuk et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 20 (2019) 248–253 V.V. Nicheporchuk, A.I. Nozhenkov / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000
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1. Technology of emergencies situational modeling
Using the approach offered by Nicheporchuk (2018), to justify the technology of emergencies situational modeling, we consider the system model of situational management: M = . Let's take a closer look at the listed elements of the model. The set T = {t 1, t 2, t 3 } of safety management tasks, which use situational modeling. Information resources R in the model are described by two subsets S , D. The set S = O 1 ∪ O 2 ∪ O 3 ∪ E. This division is conditional and can be changed when modeling a specific situation. The set D = {d 1 , d 2 , … , d 7 } . The complexity of the information support tasks management T leads to the need to use various information technologies: IT = {it 1 , it 2 , it 3 , it 4 , it 5 } . Solutions view generated in the process of management support: Y = {C, A, D, M} . The technology of situational modeling is formed on the basis of realization of elements of system model M of situational management. We used the ontological description of relations between the elements of the model in order to construct the integrated information and control systems on its basis Lapshin (2010). The process of situation modeling based on the management model is shown in Figure 1. Management informational support is required for all types of situations, the signals of which come to the dispatching services of emergency response by phone calls, from monitoring systems and interacting departments. Depending on the availability of calculation methods, situational modeling is implemented in three directions: • background assessment of the emergencies scale on the basis of simplified calculation methods with a minimum of initial data is carried out immediately after receiving information about the event – task t 2 . The obtained simulation results are highly overestimated by RD 52.04.253-90 (1990). The situation detailing and recalculation is carried out after the investigation of the scene by the task force • refined methods that require knowledge of technological processes detailing, buildings plan, etc., are used in the reconstruction of dangerous events and the creation of new scenarios of dangerous situations t 1 , as well as a part of the risk assessment process – task t 3 by RD 03-418-01 (2002) • spatial analysis of dangerous events that occurred at long-term facilities – transport communications, housing and utilities infrastructure, etc. The network analysis of directed graphs allow to assess the consequences and dynamics of events taking into account to the hazards of accidents, the external environment and the volume of ongoing rescue operations. In the absence of calculation methods, the basis of management informational support is the operational map. The formation of the map takes place using GIS it 4 , which integrates topographic bases or satellite images from web resources, digital layers of objects O 1 , O 2 , O 3 and the results of dynamic mapping of the situation zone. The emergency area may represent the areal object – the results of calculations by the methods; linear features, for example, the results of spatial analysis of incidents on transport and communications, points or arrays of points – for example, the results of mapping messages about the consequences of large scale dangerous meteorological phenomena. The results of situational modeling are presented like the elements of the set Y , and visualized using it 6 web technologies. Unlike the standard approved reporting forms, the use of dynamically customizable tables, maps and graphs allows you to adapt the generated solutions to a specific situation and the preferences of decision makers, to eliminate the redundancy of information that slows down the urgent measures of reaction. The solutions are based on the use of intelligent it 5 technologies that control software modules and data flows in the process of logical output. Production-frame approach to the organization of knowledge bases d 5 allows you to describe the scenarios of situations occurrence and development in the amount which is necessary and sufficient to the guide rescue teams. Currently, effective decision-making in a dangerous situation is difficult both because of the lack of reliable data, and because of the overproduction of information that reduces the ability to understand it.