PSI - Issue 20

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2018) 000 – 000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2018) 000 – 000

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ScienceDirect

Procedia Structural Integrity 20 (2019) 136–142

1st International Conference on Integrity and Lifetime in Extreme Environment (ILEE-2019) Probabilistic methods for risk assessment of anthropogenic accidents and emergency Ulyana S. Ivanova a,b , Olga V. Taseiko c,d , Daria A. Chernykh a,c, * a Institute of Computational Technologies SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk Branch office, Mira Av., 53, Krasnoyarsk, 660049, Russian Federation b Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Svobodny Av., 79, Krasnoyarsk, 660041, Russian Federation c Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology, Krasnoyarsky Rabochy Av., 31, Krasnoyarsk, 660037, Russian Federation d Institute of Computational Modeling, SB RAS, Academgorodok Str., 50, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation Abstract The presentation of an industrial region as a unified socio-natural-technogenic (S-N-T) system in which various risk groups are formed and implemented is proposed. Detailed attention is paid to the technosphere subsystem. The paper defines the basic risks of the technosphere, presents the probability of an emergency in the Russian Federation, allowing to calculate the risks for various municipalities. The results of systematization and graphical-probabilistic representation of sources and factors causing accidents and man-made disasters in the Krasnoyarsk territory are presented. The results of the emergency risk in the Krasnoyarsk territory for various reasons. The results of emergencies risks on the Krasnoyarsk territory were obtained. The highest value is 8 · 10 -3 – the emergencies risk on land transport, the lowest value is obtained for the occurrence of emergencies on the main oil pipelines 4,3 · 10 -7 . Determination of probabilities by the main sources of anthropogenic emergencies allows unifying the risk assessment methodology and improving the management efficiency of territorial S-N-T systems (Preventing the occurrence and development of emergency situations, reducing damage and losses in case of their occurrence, increasing the stability and safety of facilities in emergency situations). 1st International Conference on Integrity and Lifetime in Extreme Environment (ILEE-2019) Probabilistic methods for risk assessment of anthropogenic accidents and emergency Ulyana S. Ivanova a,b , Olga V. Taseiko c,d , Daria A. Chernykh a,c, * a Institute of Computational T chnologie SB RAS, Kr snoyarsk Branch office, Mira Av., 53, Krasnoyar k, 660049, Russian Federation b Siberian Fed al University, Krasnoyarsk, Svobodny Av., 79, Krasno arsk, 660041, Russian Federation c Reshetnev Siber an State Univers ty of Science and Technology, Krasn yarsky Rabochy Av., 31, Krasnoyarsk, 660037, Russia Federation d Institute of Computational Modeling, SB RAS, Academgorodok Str., 50, Krasnoyarsk, 660036, Russian Federation Abstract The presentation of an industrial region as a unifi d socio-n tural-technogenic (S-N-T) syste in which various risk groups are form d and im lemented is proposed. Detailed atte tion is paid to the technospher subsystem. The paper defines the basic risks of the tech os here, presents the probability of an emergency in the Russian Federation, allowing to calculate the risks for various municipalities. The results of syst matization and graphical-probabilistic repr sentation of sources and factors causing accidents and man-made disasters in the Krasnoyarsk t rritory are presented. The results of the emergency risk in t Krasnoyarsk territory for various reasons. The results of emerg ncies risks on the Krasnoyarsk territory were obtained. The highest value is 8 · 10 -3 – the emergencies risk on land transport, the lowest value is btained f r the occurrence of emergencies on t main oil pipeli es 4,3 · 10 -7 . Determination of probabilities by the main sources of anthr pogenic emergencies allows unifying the risk assessment methodology and improving the management efficiency of territorial S-N-T systems (Prev nti t occurrence and development of e ergency sit ati s, reducing damage and losses in case of their occurrence, increasing the stability and safety of facilities in emergency situations).

© 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the ILEE-2019 organizers © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the ILEE-2019 organizers © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the ILEE-2019 organizers

Keywords: Social-natural-technogenic system, Sustainable Development, Technosphere, Risk of emergency Keywords: Social-natural-technogenic system, Sustainable Development, Technosphere, Risk of emergency

2452-3216 © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the ILEE-2019 organizers 2452 3216 © 2019 Th Author(s). Publis d by lsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the ILEE-2019 organizers * Correspon ing author. Tel.: +7-391-227-49-86; fax: +7-391-227-42-88. E-mail address: dachernykh93@gmail.com * Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-391-227-49-86; fax: +7-391-227-42-88. E-mail address: dachernykh93@gmail.com

2452-3216 © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Peer-review under responsibility of the ILEE-2019 organizers 10.1016/j.prostr.2019.12.129