PSI - Issue 84

Kelly Camarena et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 84 (2026) 999–1006

1005

(a) (c) Fig. 8. (a) Baseline CO₂ concentration; (b) Baseline + 50%; (c) Baseline + 100% - 95th percentile of carbonation-induced corrosion initiation time. (b)

(a)

(b) (c) Fig. 9. Time for corrosion initiation in (a) Venice, (b) Verona and (c) Padova.

Figure 9 presents the variation in corrosion initiation time as CO₂ concentration increases, expressed for the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles. In all three cities, the results point in the same direction: higher CO₂ levels means that corrosion starts sooner. The effect is strongest at the 5th and 50th percentiles, where the predicted initiation times are shorter than the intended service life. Even in the 95th percentile, the most optimistic case, where structures would normally last much longer, the time to corrosion is still noticeably reduced as CO₂ levels increase. 5. Conclusion According to the results of this study, that explored both the effects of climate change on chloride- and carbonation induced corrosion, it is possible to demonstrate a decisive reduction of the initiation time to corrosion as a result of climate change. Overall, our findings emphasize that rising temperatures have a significant accelerating effect on chloride-induced corrosion, shortening the time to initiation across all scenarios. Although chloride concentration is still a major influence, especially in coastal areas, the results show that temperature increases amplify the deterioration process in every zone. This highlights the importance of considering future climate-driven temperature variations when assessing the long-term durability of reinforced concrete structures. For carbonation-induced corrosion, we explored the effect of emissions through a sensitivity analysis by varying CO₂ concentrations for each municipality in Veneto. The results clearly show that CO₂ concentration plays a decisive role in corrosion initiation: higher levels strongly accelerate the carbonation process. The study also pinpointed the municipalities most at risk, particularly those with dense industrial activity such as Venice, Verona, and Padova. By contrast, municipalities in the northern part of Veneto, where CO₂ concentrations are much lower, showed initiation times beyond 100 years. This suggests that carbonation is unlikely to pose a critical durability concern in those areas