PSI - Issue 84

Kelly Camarena et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 84 (2026) 999–1006

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1. Introduction Rising temperatures driven by GHG emissions are already affecting the deterioration of RC structures, higher temperatures intensify the chloride exposure from both marine and de-icing salts, enhancing chloride and affecting the service life, according to Bastidas-Arteaga et al. (2010) and Beushausen et al. (2019). Several studies have shown that higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations increase carbonation rates, leading to earlier corrosion of steel reinforcement , including Bratkovich et al. (2016), Val et al. (2025) and Chen et al. (2021) These processes indicate that structures designed under current standards may face faster degradation in future climates conditions, resulting in higher maintenance demands and earlier interventions. The Mediterranean region has been identified as particularly vulnerable to these impacts and is considered a climate change hot spot due to its sensitivity to global warming, according to Giorgi (2006). Within this context, the Veneto region represents a suitable case study, as it is exposed to both marine conditions and pronounced inland climatic variability. Although the influence of climate change on RC durability is widely acknowledged, most studies like Val et al. (2025), Chen et al. (2021) and Bastidas-Arteaga et al. (2010) remain at a global or national scale, while design codes continue to assume static environmental conditions. This highlights the need for region specific, risk-based assessments to support infrastructure planning under future climate scenarios. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of different climate projections on chloride and carbonation induced corrosion of RC structures in the Veneto region. Regional climate data for temperature and CO₂, combined with a GIS based framework and analytical deterioration models, are used to assess the spatial and temporal variability of corrosion initiation. The results identify areas with significant expected reductions in service life, providing a basis for adaptation and resilience planning. 2. Background and theoretical framework 2.1. Climate change and RC structures The IPCC Synthesis Report from Calvin et al. (2023), highlights that rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations have led to an average global temperature increase of about 1.1 °C. To represent future climate trends, the IPCC introduced the RCPs which represent trajectories of GHG concentrations throughout the 21st century (Stocker et al., 2013). Among these, RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 are widely adopted in infrastructure durability studies, as they cover a wide range of possible climate futures from strong mitigation to high emissions, according to Val et al. (2025) and Chen et al. (2021). These scenarios form the basis of the climate projections used in this work. Given the strong spatial variability of climate conditions in the Veneto region, high resolution climate projections are required. For this purpose, Regional Climate Models from the EURO CORDEX initiative, provided by the CliNE platform (Piattaforma Clima Nord-Est). These models offer historical data and future projections up to 2100 with adequate spatial and temporal resolution for durability analysis. Studies like Bratkovich et al. (2016), Chen et al. (2021), Bastidas-Arteaga et al. (2010 and 2013) and Peng, Lizhengli and Stewart (2014) show that changes in temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 directly affect the deterioration of RC structures. Higher temperatures accelerate degradation reactions, increased CO₂ intensifies carbonation, and humidity variations influence moisture transport . In coastal and urban areas, chloride exposure further contributes to deterioration. Probabilistic models indicate that climate change is expected to accelerate degradation and reduce service life, increasing maintenance and adaptation needs, as demonstrated by Val et al. (2025) and Guo et al. (2020). 2.2. Deterioration Mechanisms in Concrete Reinforcement corrosion is the principal cause of early degradation of RC structures, primarily driven by chloride ingress and carbonation processes, as discussed by Bastidas-Arteaga et al. (2010) and Saetta (1993). Chloride-induced corrosion is commonly described using diffusion based models derived from Fick’s laws, in which environmental parameters such as temperature, humidity and chloride presence play an important role (International Federation for Structural Concrete, 2006). Due to uncertainties in material properties and environmental conditions, probabilistic approaches are required for reliable service life assessment (Bastidas-Arteaga et al., 2010). DuraCrete (2000) and codes such as the fib Model