PSI - Issue 84

Martina Caruso et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 84 (2026) 143–150

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Fig. 4. Number of bridges exposed to peak ground acceleration (PGA) higher than 0.1g.

3. Underlying models The PAPERS platform integrates earthquake ruptures and ground motion models, building and infrastructure exposure models, and fragility and consequence functions. We have enhanced existing GEM exposure models of Italy through the integration of the most recent datasets and state-of-the-art modelling strategies, leading to the development of new building and infrastructure exposure models, along with the collection of country-specific fragility functions. In addition, a catalogue of earthquake scenarios has been compiled to be explored and used in the platform. 3.1. Exposure, fragility and consequence models The exposure models for the residential, commercial and industrial building stock at the national level have been updated, integrating new data and revised modelling strategies. The residential building exposure model integrates data from the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC), based on the 2011 census, with population and dwelling data from the 2021 census. The resulting dataset characterises buildings at the municipal level by construction material, height, construction epoch, built-up area, number of dwellings, and occupants. At the national scale, the residential exposure model represents a total built-up area of 3.5 billion m², corresponding to 12.6 million buildings, 35.3 million dwellings, and 59 million occupants. Construction materials are refined according to the GEM Building Taxonomy, distinguishing between unreinforced stone and clay masonry, reinforced and confined masonry, reinforced concrete infilled and dual systems, timber wall systems, and steel infilled frames, with material distributions informed by building height and construction epoch. Seismic code levels are assigned based on construction epoch. Replacement costs are estimated as a function of construction material and settlement type (big cities, urban, and rural areas), adjusted for inflation relative to 2020 estimates in the exposure models of the European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20) (Crowley et al., 2020), yielding an average replacement cost of approximately 1,300 €/m². The residential exposure model shows a total replacement cost of 5.9 trillion EUR, of which 2 trillion EUR are due to structural components, 2.2 trillion EUR to non-structural ones, and 1.7 trillion EUR to contents. The commercial building exposure model is based on the 2011 national census, which counts 442,879 commercial buildings, and includes an additional 37,249 buildings constructed between 2012 and 2023, as described in other ISTAT reports. The dataset covers diverse commercial functions, including retail and wholesale, offices, hotels, public venues, and service facilities. Buildings are disaggregated per municipality using the 2021 census of 14,988,174