PSI - Issue 84

Sebastian Thöns et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 84 (2026) 1310–1317

1314

Fatigue damage capacity 

-

Logn. 1.0

0.30 Imam,

Chryssanthopoulos

and

Frangopol (2012) The structural system reliability for the cable system with full correlation of the cables is shown in Figure 1 (short dash line) together with the target failure probability (solid line). The failure probabilities are not shown due to confidentiality reasons. The outcome probability for nominal stress monitoring (long dash line) is 0.89 to achieve a service life of 200 years, i.e., to fulfil the boundary condition of the service life extension namely compliance with the target failure probability (see Equ. (3)).

Annual probability of failure

Target probability of failure

Annual probability of failure with nominal stress monitoring

Annual failure probaility

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Serivce life year

Figure 1: Annual failure probabilities: target (solid line), failure probability (short dash line), failure probability with inspections (dotted line), failure probability with nominal stress monitoring (long dash line) 3.1. Results of system performance quantification The risks are calculated with the structural probabilities of failure and the consequences according to the scenario as shown in Table 1 and described in Section 2. The direct consequences are based on the investment for the Øresund Fixed Link and the indirect consequences with a Triangular distribution between 5 and 25 with a mode at 10 (according to Thöns and Stewart (2019)). The emission are calculated with the construction documentation (Gimsing (2000b), Gimsing (2000a)) with utilisation of databases such as by the Swedish Transport Administration, Trafikverket, and the Swedish National Board of Housing, Boverket. Figure 2 shows that the risks are dominated by indirect risks over time and the direct risks start to contribute to the risks in the second half of the envisaged service life.

-DKK 16-000-000.00 -DKK 14-000-000.00 -DKK 12-000-000.00 -DKK 10-000-000.00 -DKK 8-000-000.00 -DKK 6-000-000.00 -DKK 4-000-000.00 -DKK 2-000-000.00 DKK 0.00

Risks and emissions Direct risks Indirect risks Exp. emmission risks

Risks and emissions in E[DKK]

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

Service life year

Figure 2: Risks and expected emission for the High Bridge failure state due to fatigue of a critical detail.