PSI - Issue 64

ScienceDirect Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2023) 000 – 000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2023) 000 – 000 Procedia Structural Integrity 64 (2024) 1712–1719 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect

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www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

2452-3216 © 2024 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of SMAR 2024 Organizers 10.1016/j.prostr.2024.09.175 2452-3216 © 2024 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of SMAR 2024 Organizers 2452-3216 © 2024 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of SMAR 2024 Organizers * Corresponding author. E-mail address: rubina.canesi@unipd.it 1. Introduction Life Cycle Thinking Approaches are instrumental decision support tools utilized in large-scale projects to comprehensively evaluate construction endeavors from inception to retirement. These approaches enable a thorough assessment of projects across all stages of their lifecycle, from the initial design phase to eventual decommissioning. Keywords: Construction Costs, Large-Scale Projects, Risk Assessment, Cost Overrun, Life-Cycle Thinking; Infrastructure 1. Introduction Life Cycle Thinking Approaches are instrumental decision support tools utilized in large-scale projects to comprehensively evaluate construction endeavors from inception to retirement. These approaches enable a thorough assessment of projects across all stages of their lifecycle, from the initial design phase to eventual decommissioning. * Corresponding author. E-mail address: rubina.canesi@unipd.it SMAR 2024 – 7th International Conference on Smart Monitoring, Assessment and Rehabilitation of Civil Structures Cost sustainability management through Risk and Probability Assessment SMAR 2024 – 7th International Conference on Smart Monitoring, Assessment and Rehabilitation of Civil Structures Cost sustainability management through Risk and Probability Assessment Rubina Canesi a *, Aurora Ruggeri b , Laura Gabrielli c , Giuliano Marella d a ,b, d Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering (DICEA), University of Padova, Italy c Department of Architecture,, University of Ferrara, Italy Rubina Canesi a *, Aurora Ruggeri b , Laura Gabrielli c , Giuliano Marella d a ,b, d Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering (DICEA), University of Padova, Italy c Department of Architecture,, University of Ferrara, Italy Abstract Life Cycle Thinking Approaches, which are often used as decision support tools in large-scale projects, allow for the assessment of construction projects throughout all their life stages, from design to decommissioning. This study, by focusing on the design and construction phases of large-scale projects, aims to assess their economic sustainability through a cost management tool. The project's construction costs, estimated during the design phase, undergo numerous changes and fluctuations throughout the project development and its inevitable variations. Having early knowledge of future costs with as much precision as possible in the initial decision-making stages significantly determines the success of a project and reduces delays, i.e. time overrun, in subsequent phases. This paper aims to test a cost overrun mitigation tool by estimating the probability of occurrence and the impact of stochastic events associated with various project risks, which has already been applied to an Italian Infrastructure project. Considering the recent surge in construction costs, the proposed cost management tool will be modified to assess and quantify this increase, as well as explore potential strategies for ex-ante cost mitigation from the design to the construction phase. Abstract Life Cycle Thinking Approaches, which are often used as decision support tools in large-scale projects, allow for the assessment of construction projects throughout all their life stages, from design to decommissioning. This study, by focusing on the design and construction phases of large-scale projects, aims to assess their economic sustainability through a cost management tool. The project's construction costs, estimated during the design phase, undergo numerous changes and fluctuations throughout the project development and its inevitable variations. Having early knowledge of future costs with as much precision as possible in the initial decision-making stages significantly determines the success of a project and reduces delays, i.e. time overrun, in subsequent phases. This paper aims to test a cost overrun mitigation tool by estimating the probability of occurrence and the impact of stochastic events associated with various project risks, which has already been applied to an Italian Infrastructure project. Considering the recent surge in construction costs, the proposed cost management tool will be modified to assess and quantify this increase, as well as explore potential strategies for ex-ante cost mitigation from the design to the construction phase. © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of SMAR 2024 Organizers Keywords: Construction Costs, Large-Scale Projects, Risk Assessment, Cost Overrun, Life-Cycle Thinking; Infrastructure