PSI - Issue 55

Francesca Frasca et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 55 (2024) 32–38 Frasca et al., / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2019) 000 – 000

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1. Introduction In the last decades, investigations on the impact of future climate scenarios on the preservation of outdoor and indoor heritage are demonstrating the increasing threats posed by climate change in the European area (Bertolin, 2019; Bonazza & Sardella, 2023; Califano et al., 2023; Kotova et al., 2023; Verticchio et al., 2023). If outdoor heritage is directly exposed to more frequent adverse events (e.g., heavy precipitation, heat waves, high-polluted days), also indoor heritage can indirectly suffer from these outdoor climate conditions. Since the beginning of 20 th century, the control of indoor climate conditions was considered the best approach to reduce the occurrence of climate-induced risks, but heating and air conditioning systems, if inefficient, are now resulting insufficient to meet a sustainable energy demand of these spaces. Although the linkage between climate change and cultural heritage degradation has been recognized also by the latest European Commission's priorities 2019-2024, few efforts have been devoting to reducing carbon footprints and environmental impact of buildings preserving collections. Both the implementation of passive solutions (e.g., thermal insulation of building envelope) and the use of renewable energy sources would allow to minimize the use of energy intensive systems for a tight control of the indoor climate also in museum environments that would contribute in turn to meet the requirements of the Green Deal to make the European Union climate neutral in 2050. This study investigates the potential changes in heating and cooling energy demands in museums under the extreme Shared Socio-economic Pathways climate scenario (SSP5-8.5), considering temperature thresholds suggested by standards for limiting thermal-induced degradation. Nomenclature A total surface area of the building (m -2 ) CDD Cooling Degree Days (°C) ED Energy Demand (kWh·m -3 ·year -1 ) h hours (h) HDD Heating Degree Days (°C) out outdoor T air temperature (°C) thresh threshold U value thermal transmittance (W·m -2 ·K -1 ) V total volume of the building (m -3 ) Two sites were selected since this study has been conducted in the framework of the “ ERASMUS+ Inter institutional agreement 2023-2028 ” between the Sapienza University of Rome (Italy) and the Norwegian University of Science and Technology of Trondheim (Norway), with the aim of providing information in support of the management of future climate impacts on museums located in these two cities. Daily data of air temperature (T) at Rome (Lat. 41.9° N and Long. 12.5° E) and Trondheim (Lat. 62.7°N and Long. 11.3° E) were extracted from the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS). Recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has issued the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) (Pörtner H.O. et al., 2022). The Sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) dataset used in this analysis was generated by Centro Euro Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) (Lovato et al., 2022), providing data for recent past climate (RP, 1981-2010) and the extreme scenario SSP5-8.5 for the near future (NF, 2021-2050) and far future (FF, 2071-2100). SSP5- 8.5 represents the highest greenhouse gases emissions with a radiative forcing reaching 8.5 W∙m -2 by 2100. 2. Methods 2.1. Future outdoor climate scenarios