PSI - Issue 30

Valeriy V. Lepov et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 30 (2020) 82–86 Valeriy V. Lepov et al / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

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this will support the management decisions in the field. The creation of tools of analyze, control and manage, of NTA in the field of design and development of CES operated in extreme environment such as Arctic zone thus become a significant task for civil defense purposes. 2.3. Practical preconditions The necessary of higher-level generation of CES and industrial technologies of manufacturing improve the efficiency of the methods for organization the development and implementation for production. At present time in the technology-intensive industries as machinery, the methodology, software and standardization of identification, analysis and selection of priority directions of industry technology of manufacturing of CES are not fully developed. So the set of development in the rocket and space industry had never been realized. 2.4. Methodology of identification, analysis and selection of priority directions of basic research The possibilities and consequences of the emerging and existing areas of scientific and technological progress, which are advisable to study as objects of forecast, should be take into account since they have a significant (and often decisive) impact on the indicators of the appearance of the systems being developed and their components when solving the problems of forecasting the development of CES and industrial technologies for their production. Historically, the process of changing the technical characteristics of CES and industrial technologies for their production, being an integral part of technical progress, is characterized by the alternation of periods of gradual (evolutionary) and revolutionary (breakthrough) development. Areas of gradual development are characterized by a gradual change in characteristics by improving the technologies for the manufacture of CES within the framework of known technological methods and means of technological equipment, and the periods of spasmodic rapid progress of development differ due to critical breakthrough technologies based on methods of new, previously not used or unknown physical principles, technical ideas and solutions. 3. Results and Discussion The abovementioned patterns of development processes greatly complicate the prediction of the technical characteristics of promising CES and industrial technologies for their production, since the process of changing these characteristics cannot be described by a continuous function in general case. Therefore, along with the continuous description at each technological level, a discrete transition to a new one is necessary, thereby the model becomes discrete, structural, multi-level, as have been described by Lepov et al (2016, 2018, 2019). An analysis of the development processes of scientific and technological progress shows that there is a tendency for more frequent leaps, i.e. a decrease in the time intervals between them and an increase in the magnitudes of the jumps themselves. It is necessary to distinguish between leaps of different categories: the most significant are leaps associated with the use of new principles; leaps associated with the implementation of new technologies within the framework of one principle; horse racing associated with the improvement of new technologies. On average, as the analysis shows, the value of the period between jumps is approximated by an exponential dependence of the form: �� � � � ������ � �� , (1) where j is the number of the next jump, τ is the time scale indicator, K τ is a coefficient depending on the branch of science and technology. The question of determining the magnitude of the jump itself is somewhat more complicated. In most cases, the introduction of a new principle or a new solution within the framework of the old one leads to an abrupt increase in one or another characteristic. However, there are cases when, when using the new principle, at first, there is even a deterioration in performance due to the reasons of technological running-in. Also, the dependence should reflect the discrete nature of the jumps. According to the actively developing chaos theory, the rate of change of technology Ω should correspond to the logistic mapping (Verhulst mapping) shown by Gutierrez et al. (2009):