PSI - Issue 30

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2020) 000–000

www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

ScienceDirect

Procedia Structural Integrity 30 (2020) 128–135

IX Eurasian Symposium on the problems of strength and resource in low climatic temperatures (EURASTRENCOLD-2020) Matrix based methods for assessment of risks induced by complex

technical systems Dmitry O. Reznikov a * a Mechanical Engineering Research Institute, 4 Maly Kharitonievsky lane, Moscow, 101990, Russia

Abstract

© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of the EURASTRENCOLD - 2020 guest editors The paper presents a matrix based probabilistic approach to: (i) describing the process of accident initiation and propagation at four scale levels: the level of structural material, the level of individual components of a complex technical system, the systemic level, and the upper level of the system environment, and (ii) developing a risk assessment framework. The proposed approach is based on examining a chronological series of the subsequent discrete failure events occurring at various scale levels of the complex technical systems and its environment. This allows assessing not only the so-called direct risks that take into account for the expected monetary values of direct consequences of the accidents at the system disregarding losses inflicted by subsequent disturbances in the environment of the damaged system, but also indirect risks associated with secondary failures in the system environment. The approach provides an opportunity to describe multilevel fracture in a probabilistic formulation and to obtain an express assessment of risks induced by the complex technical systems. © 2020 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of the EURASTRENCOLD - 2020 guest editors Keywords: Threat; vulnerability; consequencies; risk 1. Introduction Complex technical systems (CTSs) are characterized by a complex structure, complicated behavior, and interaction between their components that determine the ability of systems to redistribute loads and to resist scale levels: the level of structural material, the level of individual c

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +7 495 623 55 35; fax: +7 495 623 55 35. E-mail address: mibsts@mail.ru

2452-3216 © 2020 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open-access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under the responsibility of the EURASTRENCOLD - 2020 guest editors

2452-3216 © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of the EURASTRENCOLD - 2020 guest editors 10.1016/j.prostr.2020.12.020