PSI - Issue 28

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Structural Int grity Procedia 00 (2020) 000–000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2020) 000–000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect

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Procedia Structural Integrity 28 (2020) 619–626

© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of the European Structural Integrity Society (ESIS) ExCo Abstract The propagation of uncertainty in fatigue crack growth life aims to find the effects of the process variables randomness in the fatigue lifespan. This treatment of the crack growth process commonly provides the probability distribution of the fatigue lifespan which is essential to predict the performance of a component concerning risk assessment and management. This paper presents a procedure that uses the first four moments of the fatigue crack growth life predicted by the full second-order approach to fit the parameters of a probability distribution based on the Pearson distribution family. A numerical example to illustrate the fatigue crack growth in a railway axle under random bending loading is given. The probabilistic results are compared with Monte Carlo simulations to check the goodness of the first four moments predicted and the quality of the probability density function constructed. The probabilistic description of fatigue lifespan provided can be used in ensuring the continued safe operation of a damage tolerant component. © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the European Structural Integrity Society (ESIS) ExCo 1st Virtual European Conference on Fracture Propagation of uncertainty in fatigue crack gro th for probabilistic life esti ation C. allor a * , S. Calvo a , J.L. Núñez a , R. Rodríguez-Barrachina a , A. Landaberea b a Area of Research and Development, Instituto Tecnológico de Aragón, María de Luna, 8-50018 Zaragoza, Spain. b CAF S.A., J.M. Iturrioz, 26, Beasain, Gipuzkoa, España. Abstract The propagation of uncertainty in fatigue crack growth life aims to find the effects of the process variables randomness in the fatigue lifespan. This treatment of the crack growth process commonly provides the probability distribution of the fatigue lifespan which is essential to predict the performance of a component concerning risk assessment and management. This paper presents a procedure that uses the first four moments of the fatigue crack growth life predicted by the full second-order approach to fit the parameters of a probability distribution based on the Pearson distribution family. A numerical example to illustrate the fatigue crack growth in a railway axle under random bending loading is given. The probabilistic results are compared with Monte Carlo simulations to check the goodness of the first four moments predicted and the quality of the probability density function constructed. The probabilistic description of fatigue lifespan provided can be used in ensuring the continued safe operation of a damage tolerant component. 20 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) eer-review under responsibility of the European Structural Integrity Society (ESIS) ExCo 1st Virtual European Conference on Fracture Propagation of uncertainty in fatigue crack growth for probabilistic life estimation C. Mallor a * , S. Calvo a , J.L. Núñez a , R. Rodríguez-Barrachina a , A. Landaberea b a Area of Research and Development, Instituto Tecnológico de Aragón, María de Luna, 8-50018 Zaragoza, Spain. b CAF S.A., J.M. Iturrioz, 26, Beasain, Gipuzkoa, España. Keywords: Uncertainty propagation, Probabilistic fatigue crack growth, Lifespan probability distribution, Pearson distribution family, NASGRO. Keywords: Uncertainty propagation, Probabilistic fatigue crack growth, Lifespan probability distribution, Pearson distribution family, NASGRO.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +34-976-01-00-00; fax: +34-976-01-18-18. E-mail address: cmallor@itainnova.es * Corresponding author. Tel.: +34-976-01-00-00; fax: +34-976-01-18-18. E-mail address: cmallor@itainnova.es

2452-3216 © 2020 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the European Structural Integrity Society (ESIS) ExCo 2452-3216 © 2020 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the European Structural Integrity Society (ESIS) ExCo

2452-3216 © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of the European Structural Integrity Society (ESIS) ExCo 10.1016/j.prostr.2020.10.072