PSI - Issue 20

Gusev E.L. et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 20 (2019) 294–299

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Gusev E.L. et.al. / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2019) 000–000

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developed to select the most promising directions of searching for the global minimum of the studied performance indicators. The results of comparative computational experiments on the effective solution of the problems of predicting the residual life of composites in the variational setting are presented. It is shown that the application of the principle of multiplicity of forecasting models and multiparametric models of optimal complexity in the framework of refined formulations of inverse problems of residual resource prediction in the variational formulation can significantly increase the accuracy of solving prediction problems. In this case, the prediction error when using prediction models with a small fixed number of parameters, such as the model Burmanic V.N., might many times exceed the forecast error, the resulting prediction models of optimal complexity and optimal number of parameters. Developed a universal model for remaining life prediction, long-eternity complex composites while simultaneously destabilizing influence of several physical factors, the methods developed for solving inverse problems of predicting the variation in the refined productions on the basis of the many responsibilities of prediction models can be applied to solve a wide range of practical tasks remaining life prediction, durability, strength complex nepostroennye composites in such areas as aviation and space technology, oil and gas industry, shipbuilding, etc. Bolotin, V.V., 1984. Forecasting resource machines n structures. Moscow, pp. 312 . (In Russian) Bulmanis, V.N., Yartsev, V.A., Krivonos, V.V., 1987. Performance of structures made of polymer composites under the influence of static loads and climatic factors. Mechanics of composite materials 5, 915-920. (In Russian) Filatov, I.S., Bochkarev, R.N., 1986. Some problems of estimation and forecasting of climatic stability of polymeric materials. Methods for assessing the climatic stability of polymeric materials, Yakutsk, YF SO AS USSR, 11-20. (In Russian) Potapova, L.D. , Yartsev V.P., 2005. Mechanics of materials in a complex stress state: how to predict the ultimate stress? Machine Building, Moscow, pp. 242. (In Russian) Reutov, A.I., 2007. Prediction of reliability of construction products from polymeric materials. Moscow, OOO RIF Building Materials, pp.184 . . (In Russian) Reutov, A I. , Sidorenko, A.A., Filatov, I.S., 2002. Estimation of climatic stability of polymeric materials on the basis of probabilistic-statistical method. Izvestia TPU, 305, 5, 196-203. (In Russian) Reutov A.I., 2009. Prediction of climatic resistance of polymeric materials used in construction. Vestnik TGASU, 2, 127-141. (in Russian) Stepanov, M.N., Zinin, A.V., 2007. Prediction of fatigue resistance characteristics of materials and structural elements. Innovative engineering, Moscow, pp. 392. Bashkarev, A.Ya., Vettegren, V.I., Suslov, M.A., 2016. Durability of polymer composites. Sankt-Petersburg, SPPTU, pp. 147. (in Russian) Gusev, E.L., 2016. Using parallel procedures for the searching of the extremum for the decision of the inverse problems prediction of the defining characteristics of the composite materials. Material Physics and Mechanics 26, 1 , 70-72. Gusev, E. L., 2018. Mathematical methods of predicting the determining characteristics of composites in variational formulation based on the principle of multiplicity of models. Progressive technologies and systems of mechanical engineering 62, 3, 23-29. Gusev, E. L., Babenko, F. I., 2015. Methods of extremum search with optimal choice of parameters for solving problems of parameters recovery of prediction models of determining characteristics of polymer composites. Proceedings "Materials for technical devices and structures used in the Arctic", Moscow, All-Russian Institute of aviation materials (VIAM), 132-141. (In Russian) Gusev, E. L., Bakulin, V. N., 2018. Optimal control of decrease in the intensity of the thermal field on the basis of the choice of the structure of nonuniform structures in the variation in the situation. Reports of RAS 480(3), 287-292. Gusev, E. L., 2018. Methods for solving inverse problems of predicting the residual life of composites in refined variational formulations based on the principle of multiplicity of forecasting models.In the proceedings of the All-Russian conference "Mechanical properties of modern structural materials", Moscow, Institute of metallurgy and materials science, RAS, (IMET RAS). (In Russian) Gusev, E. L., Bakulin, V. N., 2017. Methods for solving inverse problems of predicting the residual life of structures made of composite materials under the influence of extreme climatic factors of the environment in the refined statements. Proceedings of the 7th All-Russian conference with international participation "Mechanics of composite materials and structures, complex heterogeneous media" , M., Institute of applied mechanics RAS ( IPRIM RAS), 68-70. (In Russian) Urzhumtsev Yu. S. 1982. Prediction of long-term resistance of polymeric materials. Nauka, Moscow, pp. 222 . (In Russian) Bulmanis, V.N., Startsev, O.V., 1988. Prediction of changes in the strength of polymer fibrous composites as a result of climatic effects. Preprint. Yakutsk: YaF SO AN SSSR, pp. 32. (In Russian) References