PSI - Issue 20

Ulyana S. Ivanova et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 20 (2019) 136–142 Ulyana S. Ivanova et al. / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2019) 000 – 000

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Table 2. The summary estimates for emergency risks. Risk of emergencies and technogenic accidents

Acceptable risk

-4

-3

Risk of emergency caused by land transport

1·10

8· 10

-4

Risk of emergency caused by air transport

1,3·10

-5

Risk of emergency caused by on river transport

1,4·10

-5

Risk of emergency caused by railway transport

7·10

-5

Risk of emergency caused by collapse at a strategically infrastructure

3·10

Risk of emergency caused by collapse at a critical infrastructure 7,2·10 -4 Risk of emergency caused by collapse a potentially hazardous objects 2·10 -3 Risk of emergency caused by collapse in health care facilities 3,5·10 -4 Risk of emergency caused by collapse in educational institutions 1,7·10 -3 Risk of emergency caused by collapse in Universities and branches 2,3·10 -5 Risk of emergency caused by collapse in cultural-entertainment facilities 4,9·10 -4 Risk of emergency situation with exhaust of radioactive substances 1·10 -5 Risk of emergency caused by with exhaust of chemically dangerous substance 1,5·10 -4 Risk of emergency caused by oil pipeline systems 4,3·10 -7

4. Conclusion The work identifies probabilities for causes of accidents on the territory of the Russian Federation, which allow calculations of the technosphere risks for various municipalities. The results of the systematization and graphical probabilistic representation of the sources and factors causing accidents and anthropogenic disasters in the Krasnoyarsk territory are presented. The results of emergencies risks on the Krasnoyarsk territory were obtained. The highest value is 8 · 10 -3 – the emergencies risk on land transport, the lowest value is obtained for the occurrence of emergencies on the main oil pipelines 4,3 · 10 -7 . Determination of probabilities by the main sources of anthropogenic emergencies allows unifying the risk assessment methodology and improving the management efficiency of territorial S-N-T systems (Preventing the occurrence and development of emergency situations, reducing damage and losses in case of their occurrence, increasing the stability and safety of facilities in emergency situations). Acknowledgements The reported study was funded by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Government of Krasnoyarsk Territory, Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund of Science, to the research project № 18 -47-240006 : «Methods and information technologies for risk assessment of the development of socio-natural-technogenic systems in an industrial region » .