PSI - Issue 81

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ScienceDirect

Procedia Structural Integrity 81 (2026) 228–233

© 2026 The Authors. Copy from the contract: Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of DMDP 2025 organizers Keywords: Wagon repair enterprises; production systems; forecasting risk; reliability; failure. 1. Introduction Modern wagon repair systems are structurally complex subsystems comprising a large number of elements (Fig. 1). The reliability of each production element, along with potential failures, significantly affects the reliability of the wagon repair enterprise as a whole. The production system is characterised by a large number of parallel and sequential elements in terms of its process integrity. As a result, in the process of production, situations may emerge between the subdivisions or individual components that influence Abstract The current working conditions in which wagon repair and maintenance enterprises operate are extremely difficult. They are characterised by significant deterioration of individual production subsystems, high depreciation of fixed assets, marginal resource constraints, and inconsistency between management procedures and the operational characteristics of production systems. Given the impact of the condition of wagon repair enterprises on the overall efficiency of railway transport, there is an urgent need to implement a progressive management system. The vast majority of wagon repair enterprises were designed for serial and mass production systems. One of their main characteristics was the stability of production parameters over time, determined by stable demand for products, sufficient working capital to maintain the development of production systems, etc. In recent years, the stochasticity of external conditions has increased manifold, making it impossible not only to strategically plan enterprise work in time but also to implement standard technological procedures without excessive risk. This article discusses practical measures for developing a progressive production management system at a wagon repair enterprise. The article examines the fundamental principles for building a risk management system at wagon repair enterprises. An assessment of the risk structure was carried out from the perspective of the occurrence of undesirable events within the production system. A risk register is proposed to evaluate the significance and potential consequences of such events. An analysis of the factors contributing to risks in the production system was performed, and indicators for their assessment were proposed. For example, the reliability of technological equipment was assessed at 50%, highlighting the need to develop new approaches to risk management. The risk management system at wagon repair enterprises will significantly increase their dynamic stability over time and the management efficiency of the technological processes of their main and secondary production systems. VIII International Conference “In - service Damage of Materials: Diagnostics and Prediction“ (DMDP 2025) Forecasting risk in wagon repair production systems Dmytro Voloshyn*, Liudmyla Voloshyna, Oleksandr Pleskach, Ivan Pleskach Department of Wagon Engineering and Product Quality , Ukrainian State University оf Railway Transport, 7, Oboronny Val Square, Kharkiv, 61050, Ukraine

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +38-050-192-7811 E-mail address: dmivol777@gmail.com

2452-3216 © 2026 The Authors. Copy from the contract: Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of DMDP 2025 organizers 10.1016/j.prostr.2026.03.039