PSI - Issue 80

Sadjad Naderi et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 80 (2026) 77–92 Sadjad Naderi et al. / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2025) 000–000

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Fig. 6. Predicted crack growth trajectories ( – curves) from to critical crack length at iterations 5, 10, 15, and 21 for Scheme I (first row), Scheme II (second row), and Scheme III (third row). The final cycle count distributions at the critical crack length provide reliability assessment insights for digital twin applications (Fig. 7). The probability density functions reveal different convergence characteristics across 22 iterations. Schemes I and III exhibit narrow final distributions with mean values of 137k and 136k cycles respectively, both showing coefficients of variation of 0.031 in final iterations, indicating high confidence with reduced emphasis on earlier data trends. Scheme III demonstrates faster convergence at lower iteration counts (<8) while maintaining reasonable uncertainty bounds. Scheme II yields a wider distribution with mean of 129k cycles and coefficient of variation of 0.071, reflecting a more conservative estimate that incorporates a broader range of historical information uncertainty. The comparative analysis reveals that for reliability-critical applications, Scheme II’s broader uncertainty quantification may be preferable, while Schemes I and III offer more precise but potentially optimistic predictions.