PSI - Issue 78

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect

Procedia Structural Integrity 78 (2026) 1967–1974

© 2025 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of XX ANIDIS Conference organizers Keywords: Concrete Damage Plasticity; Heritage masonry structures; Thermal-mechanical coupling; Seismic vulnerability assessment; Structural health monitoring. Abstract Medieval walls in historic urban centers are a significant example of built cultural heritage, capable of telling the history of the urban tissue and the development of the society that built them. However, those elements are vulnerable to deterioration and seismic damage due to heterogeneous masonry materials and aging. This study analyzes the medieval walls of Gubbio (Italy) to assess seismic vulnerability and post-earthquake structural behavior using integrated thermal-mechanical modeling. The finite element analysis employs the Concrete Damage Plasticity (CDP) model for stone masonry. The methodology establishes a 10-day baseline through fully coupled thermal-mechanical analysis, incorporating solar radiation patterns from PVGIS weather data and Grasshopper / Ladybug analysis as surface heat flux load condition. Seismic analysis applies a single real earthquake ground motion record (May 15, 2021, ML 3.9) at four amplification levels (1 × , 10 × , 20 × , 30 × ) in the middle of a thermal-mechanical analysis process. Model validation uses existing structural health monitoring (SHM) data from monoaxial inclinometers. Baseline thermal mechanical validation shows good agreement between simulated and experimental tilt rotation data, with the model accurately capturing diurnal solar cycle variations and characteristic daily inclination amplitudes. Post-seismic analysis reveals non-monotonic structural response patterns, with 20 × amplification producing high rotation ( 50 millidegrees) while maintaining thermal cycling, whereas 30 × amplification shows more moderate rotation ( 35 millidegrees) but with thermal response degradation. This work contributes to heritage preservation by establishing a validated framework for interpreting SHM data during seismic events and understanding how earthquake damage patterns in medieval masonry can influence daily behaviour. The approach can enable future automated damage detection algorithms and evidence-based conservation interventions. Limitations include computational demands, challenges in calibrating CDP parameters for historic materials, and sensor network requirements. Future research should address the quantification of material parameter uncertainty and develop simplified monitoring protocols for heritage sites. XX ANIDIS Conference From baseline monitoring to seismic vulnerability assessment: Integrated thermal-mechanical analysis of Gubbio’s medieval wall Eugeˆnio Moreira a,b, ∗ , Renan Paulo b , Marco Breccolotti a , Nicola Cavalagli a , Filippo Ubertini a a University of Perugia, Piazza Universita`, 1, Perugia 06123, Italy b Federal University of Ceara´, Av. da Universidade, 2853 - Benfica, Fortaleza - 60020181, Brazil

∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: + 39-345-766-2928 E-mail address: eugeniomoreira@iaud.ufc.br

2452-3216 © 2025 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of XX ANIDIS Conference organizers 10.1016/j.prostr.2025.12.250