PSI - Issue 78

Cristina Cantagallo et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 78 (2026) 1482–1489

1488

developed. Fig. 3(b) and Table 1 present a histogram of the projected GDP values for the same years and the estimated evolution of these indicators in Popoli Terme over the six years following the event, respectively.

100 120 140 160 180 200

0 20 40 60 80

GDP (Millions of current Euros )

Year 0 - BE

Year 1 – Event year

Year 2 – 1st AE year

Year 3 – 2nd AE year

Year 4 – 3rd AE year

Year 5 – 4th AE year

Year 6 – 5th AE year

Year 7 – 6th AE year

(a)

(b)

Fig. 3. (a) Normalized trend of tourist indicators in Italy and in the ten municipalities affected by the 2016 – 2017 Central Italy earthquake; (b) Projected annual GDP in Popoli Terme after a major seismic event from the year before the event (BE) to the sixth year after the event (AE).

Table 1. Projected values of GDP, tourism sector employment, and tourist presences in Popoli Terme from the year before the event (BE) to the sixth year after the event (AE), and the average variation of these indicators relative to the year before the event.

Indicator

Year 0 - BE

Year 1 – Event year

Year 2 – 1st AE year

Year 3 – 2nd AE year

Year 4 – 3rd AE year

Year 5 – 4th AE year

Year 6 – 5th AE year

Year 7 – 6th AE year

GDR (Millions of Current Euros) Employees in the tourism sector (n.)

154

139

88

96

104

125

152

186

2109

1909

1207

1309

1421

1712

2088

2552

Touristic Presences Average Variation (%)

22350

20233

12794

13877

15061

18146

22127

27044

-9.57% -42.79% -37.84% -32.57% -18.82% -1.10% 20.93%

6. Conclusions This study explored the interdependence between seismic vulnerability and economic exposure to tourism in small historic centers, focusing on Popoli Terme (PE) as the main case study. By integrating multivariate statistical analysis, scenario modelling, and benchmarking with reference territories affected by recent earthquakes, the research aimed to quantify the potential economic impact of seismic events on tourism-dependent communities. The Tourism Dependency Index (TDI) developed in this work provided a replicable and comparable metric to assess the relative exposure of local economies to fluctuations in tourism flows. TDI for Popoli Terme (12.27) was found to be slightly below the national reference mean, indicating a moderate but non-negligible level of tourism dependence. This implies that, while tourism does not constitute the dominant economic driver, it plays a relevant role in supporting local employment and sustaining essential services. The scenario analysis, based on empirical evidence from the 2016 – 2017 Central Italy earthquakes, demonstrated that even moderate disruptions to tourism demand could have significant knock-on effects on GDP, employment and income in Popoli Terme, especially in the four years after the earthquake. These findings underscore the need to integrate seismic risk reduction strategies with policies for tourism development and heritage conservation. Overall, this approach highlights the importance of combining structural risk assessments with socio-economic vulnerability metrics, in order to allow municipalities and regional authorities to better prioritize interventions and design targeted mitigation measures. Future research could refine the modelling assumptions, extending the dataset to a broader range of territories, and incorporating dynamic simulations of recovery.