PSI - Issue 78

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect

Procedia Structural Integrity 78 (2026) 412–417

© 2025 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of XX ANIDIS Conference organizers Keywords: Machine learning; Masonry building; Post-earthquake usability class; Post-earthquake reconstruction costs Abstract After the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake, a procedure was developed for assigning reconstruction grants to buildings with usability ratings of B, C, or E following the outcome of the post-earthquake usability assessment (AeDES forms). Although the procedure is complex due to the need to account for various scenarios, the calculation of reconstruction costs depends on two main factors: the observed damage and the assessed vulnerability level. For masonry buildings, which make up more than 90% of structures in smaller centres, vulnerability is determined by combining nine contributions that represent key factors influencing the overall vulnerability assessment. This work investigates whether a classification model with satisfactory performance metrics can be de veloped to predict cost classes using only synthetic vulnerability data. The goal is to calibrate a model that can reasonably estimate reconstruction costs using only vulnerability features, which can be assessed even without damage information following a seis mic event. Such models are crucial for calculating earthquake insurance premiums, which are expected to depend on a building’s vulnerability. XX ANIDIS Conference Predicting post-earthquake reconstruction costs of masonry buildings from seismic vulnerability features Nicola Di Battista* a , Angelo Aloisio b , Tiziana D’Alfonso c , Ra ff aelloFico d a Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering - Sapienza University of Rome - Via Eudossiana, 18 - 00184 - Roma, Italy b Universita` degli Studi dell’Aquila - Via Giovanni Gronchi n.18 - L’Aquila - 67100, Italy c Department of Computer Control and Management Engineering - Sapienza University of Rome - Via Ariosto, 25 - 00185 Roma, Italy d SpecialO ffi ce for Reconstruction for Municipalities of the Crater (USRC) - Piazza Gemona, 1 - Villaggio S. Lorenzo - 67020 - Fossa, L’Aquila, Italy

1. Introduction

The protection of the existing building stock from seismic events is now firmly anchored to performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE), the backbone of modern seismic-risk assessment (SRA) methodologies [15, 9].

∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: + 39-3938579867 ; fax: . E-mail address: nicola.dibattista@uniroma1.it

2452-3216 © 2025 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of XX ANIDIS Conference organizers 10.1016/j.prostr.2025.12.053