PSI - Issue 78

Marco Fasan et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 78 (2026) 831–838

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4. Conclusions This study investigates the effects of different seismic source parameters by analyzing the Dahshour 1992 scenario, accounting for a broad range of potential uncertainties. The study highlights the importance of accounting for source variability and seismic uncertainties in hazard assessment for cultural heritage preservation, showing that:  Variability in seismic source parameters significantly affects ground motion.  Both so called epistemic (knowledge-based) and aleatory (random) uncertainties should be rigorously integrated for realistic seismic hazard assessments.  A physics-based approach enables realistic site-specific seismic input definition even in regions with limited historical data.  The findings emphasize that accurate modeling and uncertainty quantification are critical for proactive mitigation and resilience strategies in cultural heritage conservation. This paper concludes that the more rigorously we quantify and tackle variability and uncertainties in seismic source characterization (e.g. magnitude, focal mechanism, source rupture realization), using current knowledge, modern and verified concepts and definitions, and properly adopting validated methods, the more reliably we can estimate future ground shaking at cultural heritage sites. In fact, our goal is to enhance societal resilience by anticipating seismic risks beyond recorded events, ensuring proactive mitigation strategies for future earthquakes. Acknowledgements This research study was carried out in the framework of the “CoReng” project - Conservation of the Religions Complex in Old Cairo through geosciences and earthquake engineering integration. “CoReng” Particular Relevance Italy-Egypt bilateral project (2024-26), which is partly financially supported by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (grant number EG24GR01) and by the Egyptian Science, Technology & Innovation Funding Authority (STDF, grant number 47530). References Abu El-Nader, I., Hussein, H.M., 2018. The present-day active deformation in the central and northern parts of the Gulf of Suez area, Egypt, from earthquake focal mechanism data. Natural Hazards 92(3), 1355 – 1369. Boore, D. M., 2010. Orientation-independent, nongeometric-mean measures of seismic intensity from two horizontal components of motion. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 100(4), 1830 – 1835. El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal, A., 2010. Ground motion prediction from nearest seismogenic zones in and around Greater Cairo Area, Egypt. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci 10, 1495 – 1511. Gusev, A. A.. 2011. Broadband Kinematic Stochastic Simulation of an Earthquake Source: a Refined Procedure for Application in Seismic Hazard Studies. Pure and Applied Geophysics 168(1 – 2), 155 – 200. Hassan, H.M., Abdel Hafiez, H.E., Sallam, M.A., Bedon, C., Fasan, M., Henaish, A., 2025a. Multidisciplinary Approach of Proactive Preservation of the Religions Complex in Old Cairo — Part 1: Geoscience Aspects. Heritage 8(2), 56. Hassan, H.M., Abdel Hafiez, H.E., Sallam, M.A., Bedon, C., Fasan, M., Henaish, A., 2025b. Multidisciplinary Approach of Proactive Preservation of the Religions Complex in Old Cairo — Part 2: Structural Challenges. Heritage 8(3), 89. Hassan, H.M., Fasan, M., Sayed, M.A., Romanelli, F., ElGabry, M.N., Vaccari, F., Hamed, A., 2020. Site-specific ground motion modeling for a historical Cairo site as a step towards computation of seismic input at cultural heritage sites. Engineering Geology 268, 105524. Hassan, H.M., Romanelli, F., Panza, G.F., ElGabry, M.N., Magrin, A., 2017. Update and sensitivity analysis of the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment for Egypt. Engineering Geology 218, 77 – 89. Hassan, H.M., Sayed, M.A., Fasan, M., Romanelli, F., Amadio, C., Hamed, A., ElGabry, M., Hamama, I., 2023. Seismic Assessment of a Cultural Heritage Minaret in Cairo. Springer Geology, 541 – 565. Mohamed, A.E.-E.A., El-Hadidy, M., Deif, A., Abou Elenean, K., 2012. Seismic hazard studies in Egypt. NRIAG Journal of Astronomy and Geophysics 1(2), 119 – 140. National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG), 2024. Egyptian national seismological network earthquake catalog. https://ensn.nriag.sci.eg/ Panza, G.F., La Mura, C., Peresan, A., Romanelli, F., Vaccari, F., 2012. Seismic Hazard Scenarios as Preventive Tools for a Disaster Resilient Society. Advances in Geophysics 53, 93 – 165). Pavlov, V.M., 2009. Matrix impedance in the problem of the calculation of synthetic seismograms for a layered-homogeneous isotropic elastic medium. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 45(10), 850 – 860.