PSI - Issue 78

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

ScienceDirect

Procedia Structural Integrity 78 (2026) 2141–2146

© 2025 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of XX ANIDIS Conference organizers Keywords: NTC18; PSHA; Multirisk Assessment; Earthquake Risk; Vulnerability; Drought; Water Reliability; Climate Change; Camastra Dam 1. Introduction Infrastructural systems are increasingly exposed to overlapping hazards that challenge conventional, single-risk engineering approaches. Among these, seismic threats have traditionally driven structural safety assessments through probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), based on Poisson models and codified in national technical standards like Italy's NTC2018. However, the growing impact of climate-induced hydrologic variability, aging infrastructure, Abstract We propose a time-adaptive seismic reliability framework consistent with NTC18 code to evaluate infrastructure performance under multi-risk conditions, combining Poisson-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) with non-seismic environmental and other regulatory uncertainty drivers. The method is applied to the Camastra Dam in Southern Italy, historically affected by structural limitations, lack of updated seismic and hydraulic assessments, and restrictive rules imposed without supporting retrofitting. This framework allows comparison between long-term earthquake-induced collapse probabilities and the short-term escalating risk of total storage loss under precautionary management. The results highlight how unbalanced risks estimates can compromise the resilience of water infrastructure under compound threats. XX ANIDIS Conference NTC18 time-adaptive PSHA reliability for Poisson predictions of Camastra dam multi-risk scenarios Marco Faggella a, *, Andre R. Barbosa b a CONSTRUCT, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal b School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State Univ., 342 Owen Hall, Corvallis, OR 9733, United States

* Corresponding author. E-mail address: mfaggella@gmail.com

2452-3216 © 2025 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of XX ANIDIS Conference organizers 10.1016/j.prostr.2025.12.272