PSI - Issue 78

Yazdan Almasi et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 78 (2026) 433–440

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refineries, where delayed tsunami impacts could compromise already weakened components. To advance multi-hazard risk assessment for industrial facilities exposed to earthquake-tsunami scenarios, future research should focus on developing coupled fragility functions using experimental, numerical, and post-event data. These functions must capture sequential damage and residual capacity degradation. Modeling the cascading effects, including timing, evolving damage states, and interdependent failures, will improve predictive accuracy (Vitale, Baltzopoulos, et al., 2024; Wu et al., 2024). In parallel, there is a pressing need to expand probabilistic joint hazard modeling approaches. This includes the use of conditional hazard scenarios, wherein the probability of tsunami impact is assessed contingent upon an initial seismic event (Goda et al., 2014; Goda & De Risi, 2018). Additionally, system-of-systems methodologies should address not just structural damage but also functional disruptions and interdependencies within industrial networks (Choi et al., 2024; Dhulipala et al., 2021). Such models will provide insights into operational continuity, downtime consequences, and the resilience of entire industrial networks under multi-hazard conditions. Ultimately, transitioning from traditional, parallel single-hazard assessments to fully integrated multi-hazard frameworks represents a pivotal shift in risk analysis. This evolution will enable more accurate quantification of risks, support informed decision-making, and facilitate the design of industrial infrastructure that is both robust and adaptable in the face of cascading natural hazards. 5. Conclusions This study review highlights the urgent need to advance multi-hazard risk assessment methodologies for industrial equipment exposed to sequential earthquake–tsunami scenarios. Despite growing recognition of Na-Tech risks, current practices often rely on parallel single-hazard analyses or simplified combinations that fail to reflect the compound, path-dependent nature of cascading events. While seismic vulnerability assessment is well established, tsunami fragility modeling, particularly under sequential loading conditions, remains constrained by limited empirical data, a lack of standardized frameworks, and insufficient integration of residual capacity degradation. Recent developments, including sequential fragility frameworks, conditional hazard modeling, and rupture-consistent joint hazard curves, represent significant progress but are not yet fully operationalized. Moreover, system-level modeling of functional interdependencies, recovery dynamics, and operational continuity under compound stressors remains a critical research gap. To enable robust and realistic risk evaluation in Na-Tech-prone coastal regions, future efforts must focus on developing harmonized, probabilistic multi-hazard frameworks that integrate structural fragility, spatial exposure, and cascading failure mechanisms. Such advancements will support the design of more resilient industrial systems and inform evidence-based mitigation and emergency planning strategies in the face of increasingly frequent and severe interactions between natural hazards. References Alessandri, S., Caputo, A. C., Corritore, D., Giannini, R., Paolacci, F., & Phan, H. N. (2018). Probabilistic risk analysis of process plants under seismic loading based on Monte Carlo simulations. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2017.12.013 Araki, S., Kunimatsu, W., Nishiyama, S., Furuse, T., Aoki, S. ichi, & Kotake, Y. (2017). Experimental study on tsunami wave load acting on storage tank in coastal area. 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Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104269 Caputo, A. C., Paolacci, F., Bursi, O. S., & Giannini, R. (2019). Problems and Perspectives in Seismic Quantitative Risk Analysis of Chemical Process Plants. Journal of Pressure Vessel Technology, Transactions of the ASME, 141(1). https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4040804 Choi, E., Kwag, S., Kim, J. H., Ha, J. G., Hahm, D., & Kim, M. (2024). A review of COHRISK: Multihazard risk quantification software for nuclear power plants. Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 56(12), 5281–5290. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.NET.2024.07.035 Corritore, D., Paolacci, F., & Caprinozzi, S. (2021). A Screening Methodology for the Identification of Critical Units in Major-Hazard Facilities Under Seismic Loading. Frontiers in Built Environment, 7. https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2021.780719 De Risi, R., & Goda, K. (2016). Probabilistic earthquake–Tsunami multi-hazard analysis: Application to the tohoku region, Japan. 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