PSI - Issue 65

Dumanskaya E.I. et al. / Procedia Structural Integrity 65 (2024) 75–82 Dumanskaya E.I., Emelyanov I.G. / Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2024) 000–000 5 (12). Therefore, the center of density of the normal distribution of the probability of crime coincides with the origin. Thus, by specifying � =1 the highest density of the probability of crime is in the year of the offense, and it is . 0.3989 2 ( ) 1    f N (13) Formula (12) can be used to determine the probability densities for the years preceding the crime, and thus the right-hand side of the equations will be found in system (11). The highest probability of crime is believed to coincide with the year in which the offence was committed. After determining the signification on the right-hand side of the system (11), it is possible to determine the personality dangerousness � � for each year of the person's life under study. On the basis of social determinants extrapolation and accounting for changes in personal characteristics in the time period – the period of probation, the signification of the found function of personality dangerousness makes it possible to assess the risk of relapse. 4. An example of determining the function of personality dangerousness in criminal case № 1-130/2019 (https://sudact.ru/regular/doc/6WSa4viUjIb1/) An example of determining the function of personality dangerousness in a crime committed in 2019. The observation period for the person is 2015 - 2019. Time period for the accumulation of statistical information � � =1 is a year. We are limited to the order of N = 5 in the system of equations (11), because there is lack of information about personality for the years preceding 2015. In order to determine the function of personality � � , let us assume that the personality traits under study are characterized by a certain set of diskette signification from statistical sources. For this case, let us assume that a person can be characterized by 20 ( � � =20) significations contributed to crime. These significations are presented in Table 1. Since the maximum signification of � � = 1, let us assume the hypothesis of the same influence of each factor on the crime. Each component has "weigh" С �� =С � ×� � �� =0.05 . The accepted hypothesis means if there are all 20 negative factors influencing the personality, the probability of a crime is maximum and is equal to one. Therefore, let us assume that the personality traits are constant over the five years period of observation and equal to T C = 0.6 . Let us assume that the function of the influence of negative social processes on the personality � � is characterized by a set of discrete significations from statistical sources. In this case, let's assume that a person can be affected by influence of four ( � � = 4) negative social factors, facilitating to the crime. These are international migration, lack of income, the number of unemployed aged 15-72 and urbanization. Information on these processes for the observation period from 2015 to 2019 is available on the website: https://www.gks.ru/statistic Statistical information on international migration in the number of persons for 2015-2019 is calculated by the formula 79

max M M M M i  

min

1....5.  i

S

(14)

,



di

min

Here � � , � ��� , � ��� - the current, maximum, and minimum values of international migration. Table 1. Personality traits. № negative factors "weigh" 1 The presence of psychopathy and psychopathic conditions 0.05 2 Organic lesions of the central nervous system, brain contusions, mental anomalies 0 3 Aldolization and narcotization 0.05 4 Emotional instability 0