PSI - Issue 59

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2023) 000 – 000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2023) 000 – 000

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ScienceDirect

Procedia Structural Integrity 59 (2024) 757–762

© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of DMDP 2023 Organizers © 2024 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of DMDP 2023 Organizers Keywords: probabilistic approach; uncertainty of information; optimization of the gas supply system; probability characteristics; information reliability. Abstract The article considers the problems of determining and planning the development of the gas supply system in conditions of information uncertainty, in particular, regarding gas reserves, prospective fuel demand, and economic indicators. The authors highlight the need to use a probabilistic approach to estimate gas reserves and take into account economic uncertainty in the structure of gas supply. It is noted that failures of system elements can affect flows, production and other parameters, which requires attention when optimizing the structure of the gas supply system. The main focus is on the uncertainty of information about gas reserves, as well as optimization methods and taking into account possible reserves to compensate for possible gas shortages. The work points to the need for careful consideration of the reliability of information on gas reserves and considers the task of optimizing the structure of the gas supply system in conditions of random values of gas resources. © 2024 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of DMDP 2023 Organizers Keywords: probabilistic approach; uncertainty of information; optimization of the gas supply system; probability characteristics; information reliability. VII International Conference “In -service Damage of Materials: Diagnostics and Prediction ” (DMDP 2023) Probability optimization for ensuring the reliability of natural gas distribution systems V. Grudz, V. Zapukhlyak, S. Hryhorskyi*, R. Stasiuk, B. Gershun, A. Maksymchuk Ivano-Frankivsk National University of Oil and Gas, 15, str. Karpatska, Ivano-Frankivsk, 76019, Ukraine Abstract The article considers the problems of determining and planning the development of the gas supply system in conditions of information uncertainty, in particular, regarding gas reserves, prospective fuel demand, and economic indicators. The authors highlight the need to use a probabilistic approach to estimate gas reserves and take into account economic uncertainty in the structure of gas supply. It is noted that failures of system elements can affect flows, production and other parameters, which requires attention when optimizing the structure of the gas supply system. The main focus is on the uncertainty of information about gas reserves, as well as optimization methods and taking into account possible reserves to compensate for possible gas shortages. The work points to the need for careful consideration of the reliability of information on gas reserves and considers the task of optimizing the structure of the gas supply system in conditions of random values of gas resources. VII International Conference “In -service Damage of Materials: Diagnostics and Prediction ” (DMDP 2023) Probability optimization for ensuring the reliability of natural gas distribution systems V. Grudz, V. Zapukhlyak, S. Hryhorskyi*, R. Stasiuk, B. Gershun, A. Maksymchuk Ivano-Frankivsk National University of Oil and Gas, 15, str. Karpatska, Ivano-Frankivsk, 76019, Ukraine

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +38 (0342) 72-71-39. E-mail address: stanislav.hryhorskyi@nung.edu.ua * Corresponding author. Tel.: +38 (0342) 72-71-39. E-mail address: stanislav.hryhorskyi@nung.edu.ua

2452-3216 © 2024 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of DMDP 2023 Organizers 2452-3216 © 2024 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of DMDP 2023 Organizers

2452-3216 © 2024 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of DMDP 2023 Organizers 10.1016/j.prostr.2024.04.108