PSI - Issue 50

ScienceDirect Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2022) 000 – 000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Structural Integrity Procedia 00 (2022) 000 – 000 Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

Procedia Structural Integrity 50 (2023) 257–265

© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 ) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the MRDMS 2022 organizers Abstract The article analyzes the results of observations of uneven settlement of various buildings, obtained in the course of long-term observations with the help of automated systems of deformation monitoring. The main purpose of the work is to evaluate the possibilities of predicting sedimentary processes using statistical forecasting models. Emphasis is placed on approach using time series analysis algorithms. The results of simulation using the integrated autoregressive moving average model are demonstrated. To build a forecast, data on the foundation settlement over a 5-year period were used. Predictive values obtained for 1-year and 2-year intervals are compared with the data of real observations. The comparison showed that at the chosen forecasting horizon, the deviation of the predicted settlement value from the actually observed one is comparable to the accuracy of sediment measurement by hydraulic leveling sensors. The study showed the promise of using this approach to predict the integrity of structures within the framework of an automated system of deformation monitoring. © 2023 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the MRDMS 2022 organizers Keywords: Defomation monitoring; uneven settlement; long-term observations; time series; statistical forecasting models 1. Introduction Ensuring the safety of buildings located in areas of unstable soils is a big problem. The development of karst processes, mining, flooding of mines, construction of tunnels, and many other natural and man-made hazards can 16th International Conference on Mechanics, Resource and Diagnostics of Materials and Structures (MRDMS 2022) Forecast of differential settlement of structures using data of monitoring system I. Shardakov a , R. Tsvetkov a , G. Gusev a , V. Yepin a , I. Glot a * a Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics, 1, Koroev Str., Perm, 614013, Russia Abstract The article analyzes the results of observations of uneven settlement of various buildings, obtained in the course of long-term observations with the help of automated systems of deformation monitoring. The main purpose of the work is to evaluate the possibilities of predicting sedimentary processes using statistical forecasting models. Emphasis is placed on approach using time series analysis algorithms. The results of simulation using the integrated autoregressive moving average model are demonstrated. To build a forecast, data on the foundation settlement over a 5-year period were used. Predictive values obtained for 1-year and 2-year intervals are compared with the data of real observations. The comparison showed that at the chosen forecasting horizon, the deviation of the predicted settlement value from the actually observed one is comparable to the accuracy of sediment measurement by hydraulic leveling sensors. The study showed the promise of using this approach to predict the integrity of structures within the framework of an automated system of deformation monitoring. © 2023 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the MRDMS 2022 organizers Keywords: Defomation monitoring; uneven settlement; long-term observations; time series; statistical forecasting models 1. Introduction Ensuring the safety of buildings located in areas of unstable soils is a big problem. The development of karst processes, mining, flooding of mines, construction of tunnels, and many other natural and man-made hazards can 16th International Conference on Mechanics, Resource and Diagnostics of Materials and Structures (MRDMS 2022) Forecast of differential settlement of structures using data of monitoring system I. Shardakov a , R. Tsvetkov a , G. Gusev a , V. Yepin a , I. Glot a * a Institute of Continuous Media Mechanics, 1, Koroev Str., Perm, 614013, Russia

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-342-2378-318; fax: +7-342-2378-487. E-mail address: glot@icmm.ru * Corresponding author. Tel.: +7-342-2378-318; fax: +7-342-2378-487. E-mail address: glot@icmm.ru

2452-3216 © 2023 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the MRDMS 2022 organizers 2452-3216 © 2023 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the MRDMS 2022 organizers

2452-3216 © 2023 The Authors. Published by ELSEVIER B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the MRDMS 2022 organizers 10.1016/j.prostr.2023.10.049